Cisco Visual Networking Index Predicts Global IP Traffic to Grow Nearly Three-Fold (reaching 1.6 Zettabytes) by 2018

CISCO-logoBangalore, India,  June 11, 2014: According to the Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Forecast and Service Adoption for 2013 to 2018, global Internet Protocol (IP) traffic will increase nearly three-fold over the next five years due to more Internet users and devices, faster broadband speeds and more video viewing. Global IP traffic for fixed and mobile connections is expected to reach an annual run rate of 1.6 zettabytes* – more than one and a half trillion gigabytes per year by 2018. The projected annual IP traffic for 2018 will be greater than all IP traffic that has been generated globally from 1984 – 2013 (1.3 zettabytes).

The composition of IP traffic will shift dramatically in the coming few years. During the forecast period, the majority of traffic will originate from devices other than personal computers (PCs) for the first time in the history of the Internet. Wi-Fi traffic will exceed wired traffic for the first time and high-definition (HD) video will generate more traffic than standard definition (SD) video.

The Internet of Everything is also gaining momentum and by 2018 there will be nearly as many machine-to-machine (M2M) connections as there are people on earth. Smart cars will have nearly four M2M modules per car.

India Specific Findings:

–          In India, there will be 1.5 billion networked devices in 2018, up from 1 billion in 2013. In 2013, 24 percent of IP traffic in India originated from non-personal computer (PC) devices; however, by 2018 the non-PC share of IP traffic will grow to 65 percent. Other devices/connections will have higher traffic growth rates over the forecast period, including TVs (from 13 percent to 14 percent), smartphones and tablets (from 11% to 51%) and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules (from 0.3% to 1%).

–          In India, Internet traffic will grow 5.5-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41 percent and reach 101 Petabytes per day in 2018, up from 20 Petabytes per day in 2013. Indian Internet traffic in 2018 will be equivalent to 160x the volume of all traffic across the entire Internet in India in 2005. The average Internet traffic will reach 9 Tbps in 2018, the equivalent of more than 7.8 million people simultaneously streaming Internet HD video.

–          In India, mobile data traffic will grow 24-fold from 2013 to 2018, a CAGR of 88 percent, and reach 1.2 Exabytes per month in 2018, up from 52 Petabytes per month in 2013. Overall, mobile data traffic in 2018 will be equivalent to 55x the volume of the entire Indian Internet in 2005.

–          In India, IP video traffic will grow 8-fold from 2013 to 2018, a CAGR of 51 percent, and reach 2.7 Exabytes per month in 2018, up from 341 Petabytes per month in 2013.  In India, IP video will be 75 percent of all IP traffic in 2018, up from 50 percent in 2013.

–          In India, 70 billion minutes (133,013 years) of video content will cross the Internet each month in 2018. That’s more than 26,600 minutes of video streamed or downloaded every second. Internet video traffic will grow 9-fold from 2013 to 2018, a CAGR of 55 percent. Total Internet video traffic (business and consumer, combined) will be 72 percent of all Internet traffic in 2018, up from 45 percent in 2013. Internet Video-to-TV traffic is expected to increase 10-fold between 2013 and 2018.

–          In India, the average fixed broadband speed will grow 3-fold from 2013 to 2018, from 3 Mbps to 9 Mbps, and the average mobile connection speed will grow 3-fold from 2013 to 2018, reaching 1,598 kbps in 2018. The average Internet user will generate 4.7 gigabytes of Internet traffic per month in 2018, up 117 percent from 2.2 gigabytes per month in 2013, a CAGR of 17 percent.

World Cup 2014 to Drive Internet Traffic

With the FIFA World Cup 2014 set to begin on Thursday (June 12), millions of people are expected to view games and/or highlights via the Internet. Video streaming and IP broadcast of the World Cup is anticipated to generate 4.3 exabytes of IP traffic, which is three times the amount of monthly IP traffic currently generated by Brazil (this year’s World Cup host city). In addition, Internet traffic generated by the 60,000 people in a stadium and traveling to games is forecasted to surpass the busy-hour** traffic from all 94 million smartphone subscribers in Brazil.

Global IP traffic is expected to reach 132 exabytes per month by 2018, which is the equivalent to:

  • 8.8 billion screens streaming the FIFA World Cup final game in Ultra-HD/4K at the same time;
  • 5.5 billion people binge-watching “Game of Thrones” Season 4 via video-on-demand in HD or 1.5 billion watching in Ultra-HD/4K;
  • 4.5 trillion YouTube clips; and
  • 940 quadrillion text messages.

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